Redux: Liberals rejoice!… President will most likely get re-elected in 2012… But,…

[The Obama Administration is angling to keep the Latino vote in the President’s corner for the November Elections so as to counterbalance losing the Independents: no one ought to be surprised about what gamesmanship might be employed to that end…  A post appeared on this page in April assessing the president’s chances for re-election, and now because of rumors about the president wanting to take some steps soon (maybe today) to help keep the Latinos in his corner, the April 10 post is repeated here…  Potpourri Pan America is supplanted, today]

Conservatives will not like this assessment and liberals will love it, somewhat – but whether one side or the other favors it or not,… at this juncture, early as it is, it seems President Obama will get re-elected in 2012.  Why?…  Because of the solid voting blocs he has in his back pocket:

1. the Black community will vote for him almost 100 percent, as it did in 2008, and that solid swing vote segment will swing the election to him.  Black pride will continue to prevail.

2.  the latino community could likely vote for him in significant numbers, as it did in 2008…  After seeing that a Black American can be elected president utilizing particular swing voting segments of society, hispanic/latino strategists are surely working out details of how in the future a latino could be elected president with the solid voting support of the Black American community…  The election of a Black American president in 2008 undoubtedly gives hope to the Hispanic/Latino community that through changing demographics and voting coalitions, one of theirs also can be elected.

3.  the portion of white liberals who still feel the weight of “the white man’s burden” will continue to vote for him in overwhelming numbers.

4.  a sizable percentage of disenchanted and alienated white females who blame a  significant number of the problems of the world and nation on the white male, once again will vote a second term for President Obama, and…. 

5.  those who simply believe intellectually that the president would or would not be the best choice for president, could evenly split their votes between the Democrat and Republican candidates, but because of the previously listed reasons, the decision would still go to the president…

In this assessment, the economy has not been totally weighed because it is still in flux.  And because even if it improves to a large degree (which historically it ought to do), or if it remains sluggish, the voting segments highlighted above probably will not be swayed too far afield to have a bearing on the election — if it improves, President Obama gets the credit…  If it remains problematic, the previous administration will get the blame…

As for the national elections of 2010, the results might have an effect on President Obama’s re-election fortunes in 2012, but it is important to note that even if his party loses big time in November, he could still win his re-election bid in 2012.


5 Responses

  1. PanAm, you make the great point that Latinos are individuals and should not be taken for granted as a unified voting bloc – that is what really irritates me about the “identity politics” approach that the current Democratic leadership appears wedded to.

    How nice it would be if all these “groups” would prove them wrong come November.

  2. The Tea Party people are not the only ones upset. Latinos who waited years to come here legally and Latinos whose families have been here for many generations are upset also.If they all VOTE against all this stuff that is not right that is being used by some politicians to buy votes and stay in office by giving illegal aliens freebies that hurt citizens, those politicians trying to please the aliens instead of the Americans will be voted out. They need to vote,

  3. Sure do hope that you are wrong on this one ….. a second Obama term would pretty much solidify America’s decline and guarantee an adaptation of some mutation of Europe’s “social democracy”. Our many freedoms, once lost, could not be regained.

    • I agree, Maine…

      Seems that if Obama can keep the Latino vote he drew last time, even if he loses a portion of the Independents, he has a shot at a second term…
      I still have doubts, though, that he can keep all the Latino vote he had last time, but he and his party are working hard to keep them and will contnue enticing them in various ways.
      But Latinos are not a unified bunch as far as political idealogy, contrary to what some political strategists might preach… Many are conservative overall, and there are many who are very, very upset with the amount of illegal immigrationa there is, and among the different generations of Latinos, viewpoints differ tremendously.
      Also, if a large number of the different segments of the Tea Party Movement remain upset with the current governmental policies and actions, and as you are someone else stated awhile back, that feeling is converted into action, the outcome can be different in the next presidential election….
      The November Elections will be very telling in showing if being upset will mean voting for change, or simply staying home on election day…

  4. “There is only one experience…NOW…nothing else matters except to the extent you believe it does.” (Adrian Cooper, Philosopher of fine thinking, 2010).

    One’s point of view is one’s future.

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